Underdog Best Puck Classic: Stacking
Author: Nick Knowles
Editor:
Billy Jones
Introduction
Welcome to
the first post relating to Underdog Fantasy Best
Puck Classic. In these Underdog-centric posts, I will be joined by my
good friend, Billy Jones, a data scientist, and fantasy sports fanatic, as we discuss
our teams and roster-building concepts as we attempt to build a $25,000 team. I
am Nick Knowles and I live and breathe hockey. I love to watch games deep into
the night and over the past five years have been mildly obsessed with fantasy
hockey. My approach to fantasy hockey has been to primarily leverage ADP, expert
fantasy rankings, occasional player preferences driven by personal bias, and a
bit of gut instinct. Billy on the other hand wouldn’t call himself a hockey
fan. He defines his knowledge as “enough to be dangerous” and only is a playoff
hockey watcher. But Billy is a key piece of the team, with experience in the
world of fantasy football and a strong data science skillset. Billy brings a
perspective centered around data analytics and is focused on conversations
around optimal player selection and roster construction. By combining my
knowledge of fantasy hockey with Billy's data-driven approach, we hope to make
some noise in the Underdog Fantasy Best Puck Classic!
In today's post, we will delve into the topic of stacking. While many of you may have encountered this term in the context of NFL best ball, it remains highly relevant in the NHL. However, it's crucial to understand that stacking doesn't work the same way in hockey. In this blog post, we will explore different types of stacks and highlight some so-called "stacks" that you may want to set up but aren't truly stacks. Let's dive right in and unravel the world of stacking in fantasy hockey!
Rules
The Best
Puck Classic is a best ball fantasy hockey tournament hosted by Underdog
Fantasy. The tournament begins with a 12-man snake draft where contestants draft
a team to compete against that league for the first 19
weeks of the season. From there 2 teams advance to the playoff rounds which
are 3 uncorrelated 2-week tournaments (Quarterfinals – weeks 20-21, Semifinal –
weeks 22-23, and Finals – weeks 24-25). In the Playoffs advancements is 2 out
of 10, 2 out of 10, then a 94-team final where the winner takes home $25,000
and prizes to the 2,820 teams out of 14,100 contestants. For more information
about the Best Puck Classic and prize tiers, click here.
In the
Best Puck Classic each team accumulates scoring from 1 center, 2 wingers, 1
defenseman, 1 goalie, and 1 flex (center, winger, defenseman) slots each week.
Each roster has 16 players and there is ZERO roster management (no pickups,
drops, or lineup setting). Each week the best scores are taken from your roster
and automatically put into one’s lineup.
|
Skater Scoring |
Points |
|
Goal |
6 |
|
Assist |
4 |
|
Powerplay Point |
0.5 |
|
Shot |
1 |
|
Block |
1 |
|
Hit |
0.5 |
|
Goalie Scoring |
Points |
|
Win |
6 |
|
Save |
0.6 |
|
Goal Against |
-3 |
What is
Stacking?
Stacking in
fantasy sports is when you get multiple players on the same team in an effort
to get the benefit of correlated outcomes. An example of this would be Connor
McDavid and Zach Hyman since both play for the Edmonton Oilers. The weeks that
McDavid or Hyman go nuclear with goals and/or assists, there is a good chance
that the other is getting goals and/or assists too as they are primarily on the
ice together.
When
looking to set up stacks in the NHL, we should be targeting players on the same
line and/or powerplay unit. Lines and power play units will change over time
and get adjusted during the game and week to week but there are some great
websites which project these out for us leftwinglock.com or dailyfaceoff.com.
The most
important part of creating a stack is making sure that your two or more players
will play on the same powerplay line, as this is where most elite offensive
players score points. Most of the time, powerplay lines will consist of the top
5 offensive players on a team (Note:
Most teams use 4 forwards and 1 defenseman, but recently,
some teams have opted to use 5 forwards). If your duo or trio of
players are elite offensively, then there is a high chance that both will play
on their team’s top powerplay unit for most of the year.
Stacks with
offensive skaters are typically straightforward as their value is typically
driven from goals and/or assists, which are directly connected to others on the
ice goals/assists. For defensemen we need to be a bit more cautious. There are
many defensemen whose value is driven less by their goal and/or assist
production and more by their stellar defensive numbers and therefore will gain
less value from being stacked compared to those who are offensive centric. Again,
we can use the Edmonton Oilers to demonstrate this point. Evan Bouchard, whose
value is primarily driven by his offense and participation on the best power
play in the league, gains significant value when stacked with McDavid and
Draisaitl. Darnell Nurse, whose value is driven by hits, blocks, and shooting
volume, is a great candidate to leave “naked”.
Note: We
do not count goalies as stackable players.
Best
ways to use a stack
Line
Stack: A line stack is what it sounds like, a stack that consists of players
from the same forward line. This is a good technique to use because it allows
you to potentially double your points every time a player on your line scores.
If one player scores a goal, there is a good chance a player on their line will
get the assist on the play.
Powerplay Stack: I think that a powerplay stack is more powerful and safer than a line stack. A powerplay stack, like a line stack, is a stack that consists of players from the same powerplay line. The reason why I like this type of stack more than the line stack is that the powerplay stack can generate more points. Going back to the last example, if a player scores a goal and their linemate gets an assist, the team gets 11 points for the play [goal+assist+shot) or (6+4+1=11)]. For the powerplay, the team will get 1 extra point because of the 0.5 points that are added per point scored on the powerplay. 1 point can go a long way, especially if this occurrence happens more than once per week. Finally, powerplay stacks are safer than line stacks because most powerplay lines will stay relatively the same throughout the year if they have 5 distinguished top offensive talents on their team.
Full
Stack: We can combine both the line and the powerplay stack to create the “full
stack”. Remember Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman? Both players are on the same
line and powerplay line which means that they are playing most, if not the
whole duration of the game together. Any time Connor McDavid scores a goal,
Zach Hyman has a chance to factor in the play somehow. Because McDavid is the
best offensive player in the game by far, Hyman is going to get the most
opportunities to score points in the league. A full stack should be the goal
for any stack.
Premium Stack:
A premium stack consists of two or more high-draft picks that are the clear
guys on their team. This could be Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, Brady
Tkachuk and Tim Stützle, or it could even be Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi. The
rule here is that both players are relatively high draft picks and play on the
same powerplay line at the very least.
Feeder
Stack: This is one of my favorite types of stacks. To explain, I will use
Connor Bedard as an example. Now, I don’t necessarily believe that Connor
Bedard will struggle in the NHL (trust me, I think he’s generational), but my
issue is taking such a high draft pick (2nd or 3rd
rounder) for a player that hasn’t played a minute of NHL ice time. Now the
issue is that I don’t want to draft Bedard that high, but I also want to get
involved with the potential reward of having Bedard. This is where instead of
drafting Connor Bedard high, I will draft his linemate(s) at a lower spot. Because
Taylor Hall and Lukas Reichel are projected to play with Bedard, I will select
them because they will be able to feed off Bedard’s success. Doing this ensures
that I will have some stock in Bedard without putting too much into him. By no
means am I saying to not draft Bedard, all I am saying is his linemates are the
safer investment since they will be able to feed off from Bedard's success.
Stacks
at Current ADP
This
visual allows you to see what players might be available at each pick ADP.
Horizontally, the teams are given, and vertically, the player with their
projected ADP is posted.
Winnipeg
Jets – Kyle Connor is at the backend of the 2nd level “elite” winger
tier which makes him a solid pick in the late 2nd or early 3rd
round. Also, with Josh Morrisey's ADP at 90, he would be an elite second
defenseman to have or an efficient number 1 defenseman if you go heavy with
drafting other positions early. Connor and Morrisey is an easily obtainable
stack between a winger and defenseman which is why it has been a popular stack
in our drafts.
Carolina
Hurricanes – Andrei Svechnikov (30 ADP) is an elite player, but his linemate, Martin
Necas (136 ADP), has not been credited with this “elite” status. The Svechnikov-Necas
stack is very easy to complete with their ADPs. Also, this would be a full
stack with the two being on the same powerplay and forward lines. I would target
Martin Necas as a 2nd or 3rd center.
Tampa Bay
Lightning – Nikita Kucherov had the most assists per game last year which can
be paired with another player like Brayden Point or Steven Stamkos (Note:
Stamkos will most likely play more wing this season than center even though he
is labeled as a center on Underdog). Combining Kucherov’s playmaking abilities
and Stamkos or Point’s scoring touch can make the two an elite stack.
Favorite
“Naked” Plays
Buffalo Sabres – Non-Tage Thompson – The Sabres have a developing offense that can take a large step this year. In our opinion, people should buy into their offense, but not through drafting Tage Thompson in round 1 or 2. Because Thompson is not on the same level as other elite centers like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and Draisaitl, we feel like going a different direction with a late first, early second round pick is the best approach. Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner are better investments.
Moritz Seider & Jacob Trouba – in 2022, the only defensemen within the top 180 ADP with 3.5 defensive fantasy points per game were Seider and Trouba. They dominated defensively as no other defenders put up above 3 defensive points per game. Their consistency defensively makes them reliable “high floor” players.
Conclusion
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